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MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

8-14  |  Road

63
FINAL
Mon, Feb 2 • 4:30 PM ET
McDougald-McLendon Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

7-12  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
HAWKS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Maryland Eastern Shore)
HawksUMES (-3.5) 0 EaglesNCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

91.9%

Eagles Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMES -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMES)

UMES By 1-7 points

16.9%

UMES By 8-14 points

26.2%

NCCU By 1-7 points

5.8%

NCCU By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
77
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
63
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Simulated Score
65
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
72
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UMES @ NCCU 76 - 83
Mar 2, 2026 NCCU @ UMES 77 - 73
Feb 2, 2026 UMES @ NCCU 63 - 65
Feb 26, 2025 NCCU @ UMES 59 - 68
Jan 11, 2025 UMES @ NCCU 69 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +16.5%
Maryland Eastern Shore: 85.0% vs North Carolina Central: 68.5%
Blocks (L5) +171.4% more
North Carolina Central: 4.4 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 1.6
Assists (L5) +39.3% more
North Carolina Central: 18.0 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 12.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +16.7%
North Carolina Central: 38.1% vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 21.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMES Score 77.0 63
NCCU Score 63.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 21.4 32.0 / 56.0
Assists 18.0 / 12.9 14.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.4 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 45.6 48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 85.0 63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 28.3 22.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.1 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 12.4 11.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
NCCU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCCU
UMES
NCCU
UMES
ML
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
81% 22-5
81% 21-5
ATS
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
81% 22-5
81% 21-5
TTL
55% 17-14
66% 21-11
100% 27-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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