Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Hornets WEB @ SAC

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

11-11  |  Road

90
FINAL
Mon, Feb 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

8-13  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
WILDCATS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WEBER STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Weber State)
WildcatsWEB (-3.5) 0 HornetsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

69.1%

Hornets Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WEB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WEB)

WEB By 1-7 points

27.2%

WEB By 8-14 points

23.0%

SAC By 1-7 points

18.6%

SAC By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
WEBER STATE
83
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
68
WEBER STATE
72
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 WEB @ SAC 90 - 104
Jan 3, 2026 SAC @ WEB 82 - 95
Mar 8, 2025 SAC @ WEB 70 - 83
Feb 20, 2025 SAC @ WEB 80 - 77
Jan 25, 2025 WEB @ SAC 87 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Weber State: 42.4% vs Sacramento State: 37.8%
Blocks (L5) +131.6% more
Sacramento State: 3.2 vs Weber State: 1.4
Assists (L5) +32.7% more
Sacramento State: 15.9 vs Weber State: 12.0
Steals (L5) +25.2% more
Sacramento State: 9.0 vs Weber State: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WEB Score 88.0 90
SAC Score 83.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 42.4 63.0 / 31.0
Assists 15.9 / 12.0 21.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.2 / 1.4 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 46.6 62.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 74.1 78.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 30.8 34.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.0 / 7.2 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 10.8 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WEB Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
WEB
SAC
WEB
ML
57% 17-13
73% 22-8
87% 26-4
73% 22-8
ATS
73% 22-8
63% 19-11
87% 27-4
74% 23-8
TTL
60% 18-12
83% 25-5
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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