NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
9-13 | Road
61
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
6-15 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
DEMONS
100%
COLONELS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Nicholls)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NICH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)
NICH By 1-7 points
15.3%
NICH By 8-14 points
25.3%
NWST By 1-7 points
4.8%
NWST By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Nicholls
93
NICHOLLS
Northwestern State
78
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
Nicholls
65
NICHOLLS
Northwestern State
78
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colonels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Colonels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Demons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
NWST @ NICH
47 - 61
Feb 2, 2026
NICH @ NWST
61 - 58
Jan 5, 2026
NWST @ NICH
72 - 74
Feb 10, 2025
NWST @ NICH
72 - 60
Jan 4, 2025
NICH @ NWST
66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.4% more
Nicholls: 4.5
vs
Northwestern State: 1.8
Steals (L5)
+33.7% more
Nicholls: 9.2
vs
Northwestern State: 6.1
Turnovers (L5)
+12.3% more
Nicholls: 12.4
vs
Northwestern State: 10.9
Assists (L5)
+12.6% more
Northwestern State: 13.3
vs
Nicholls: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NICH Score
93.0
61
NWST Score
78.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 29.7
20.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.3 / 11.8
11.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.8 / 4.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 41.2
37.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 66.6
80.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
30.2 / 29.7
34.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.1 / 9.2
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 12.4
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
NICH
NWST
NICH
ML
68%
21-10
53%
17-15
77%
23-7
68%
19-9
ATS
68%
21-10
47%
15-17
77%
23-7
68%
19-9
TTL
39%
12-19
56%
18-14
100%
30-0
100%
28-0
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