OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
26-21-7 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
28-14-11 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Arturs Silovs
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 2.00 | 0.875 | -- |
| Arturs Silovs | None-None | 3.13 | 0.903 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
3.13
0.875
Save %
Ldr 0.903
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
SENATORS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
6.6%
OTT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
PIT By 1 goal
0.9%
PIT By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
5
OTTAWA
Pittsburgh
1
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 26, 2026
PIT @ OTT
4 - 3
Feb 2, 2026
OTT @ PIT
3 - 2
Dec 18, 2025
PIT @ OTT
0 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
OTT @ PIT
0 - 1
Jan 11, 2025
OTT @ PIT
5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+32.7% more
Ottawa: 27.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 18.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+20.9% more
Ottawa: 15.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.5
Power Play % (L5)
+17.6%
Ottawa: 26.0%
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.5%
Takeaways (L5)
+16.3% more
Ottawa: 6.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
5.0
3
PIT Score
1.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.5 / 15.8
17.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
48.7 / 48.1
46.0 / 54.0
Hits
18.2 / 27.0
25.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
846.0 / 2602.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.7 / 29.8
16.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 6.3
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
OTT
PIT
OTT
ML
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
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