Home / NHL Projections NHL / Bruins @ Lightning BOS @ TB

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

32-20-3  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 6:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

34-14-4  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jeremy Swayman None-None 4.62 0.891 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 4.62 0.853 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.62 GAA 4.62
0.891 Ldr Save % 0.853
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
BRUINS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
BruinsBOS (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BOS By 1 goal

12.1%

BOS By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOSTON
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
BOSTON
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 TB @ BOS 2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 3
Feb 1, 2026 BOS @ TB 5 - 6
Oct 13, 2025 TB @ BOS 4 - 3
Mar 15, 2025 TB @ BOS 6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +21.4% more
Tampa Bay: 31.4 vs Boston: 25.9
Power Play % (L5) +3.5%
Tampa Bay: 21.9% vs Boston: 18.4%
Takeaways (L5) +21.3% more
Boston: 4.8 vs Tampa Bay: 3.8
Hits (L5) +8.5% more
Boston: 19.7 vs Tampa Bay: 18.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.0 5
TB Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.2 / 11.9 12.0 / 19.0
Faceoff % 51.2 / 53.8 57.4 / 42.6
Hits 18.1 / 19.7 22.0 / 20.0
Power Play % 21.9 / 18.4 37.5 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 31.4 / 25.9 46.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 3.8 / 4.8 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
83%MONEY17%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
TTL
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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