Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Nuggets OKC @ DEN

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

38-11  |  Road

121
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 9:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

33-16  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

38.2%

Nuggets Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.1%

DEN By 1-7 points

21.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
124
OKLAHOMA CITY
121
DENVER
Simulated Score
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.5 Win
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.4 vs Denver: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +19.6% more
Oklahoma City: 13.6 vs Denver: 10.9
Steals (L5) +15.0% more
Oklahoma City: 7.6 vs Denver: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Oklahoma City: 85.1% vs Denver: 78.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 124.0 121
DEN Score 121.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.1 / 33.7 46.0 / 40.0
Assists 26.0 / 24.6 29.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.9 / 6.4 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 46.7 49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 85.1 71.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 41.6 39.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.6 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 13.6 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
OKC
DEN
OKC
ML
54% 57-48
70% 80-34
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38-2
73% 83-30-1
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 56-48-1
67% 76-38
100% 86-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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