Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Wizards SAC @ WSH

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-38  |  Road

112
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 6:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

12-35  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
KINGS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

90.3%

Wizards Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

18.6%

SAC By 8-14 points

26.8%

WSH By 1-7 points

6.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
120
SACRAMENTO
107
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
125
SACRAMENTO
112
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u229.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u229.0 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 SAC @ WSH 112 - 116
Jan 16, 2026 WSH @ SAC 115 - 128
Apr 2, 2025 SAC @ WSH 111 - 116
Jan 19, 2025 WSH @ SAC 100 - 123
Mar 21, 2024 SAC @ WSH 102 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.1%
Sacramento: 84.4% vs Washington: 80.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Sacramento: 44.2% vs Washington: 42.6%
Steals (L5) +84.9% more
Washington: 10.5 vs Sacramento: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +29.9% more
Washington: 6.3 vs Sacramento: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 120.0 112
WSH Score 107.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 33.2 42.0 / 38.0
Assists 26.0 / 22.1 31.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.8 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 44.2 52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 80.3 / 84.4 73.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 44.3 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 10.5 / 5.7 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 16.3 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC Advantage
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SAC
WSH
SAC
ML
70% 112-49
55% 55-45
47% 39-44
61% 50-32
ATS
69% 111-49-1
54% 52-45-3
47% 39-44
61% 50-32
TTL
74% 119-41-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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