Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Stags QUIN @ FAIR

QUINNIPIAC

BOBCATSQUIN

14-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Leo D. Mahoney Arena
View Odds Details →

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

14-9  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
STAGS
100%
BOBCATS --
STAGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BobcatsQUIN (-3.5) 0 StagsFAIR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

46.0%

Stags Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

QUIN By 1-7 points

26.2%

QUIN By 8-14 points

16.9%

FAIR By 1-7 points

24.3%

FAIR By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
87
QUINNIPIAC
86
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
69
QUINNIPIAC
78
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stags (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Stags (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 FAIR @ QUIN 85 - 79
Feb 1, 2026 QUIN @ FAIR 72 - 65
Mar 8, 2025 QUIN @ FAIR 74 - 83
Jan 31, 2025 FAIR @ QUIN 69 - 81
Feb 23, 2024 FAIR @ QUIN 85 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Quinnipiac: 15.3 vs Fairfield: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Quinnipiac: 68.8% vs Fairfield: 64.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Quinnipiac: 33.8% vs Fairfield: 32.0%
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
Fairfield: 10.7 vs Quinnipiac: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
QUIN Score 87.0 72
FAIR Score 86.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 33.8 29.0 / 18.0
Assists 12.7 / 15.3 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.8 4.0 / 12.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 43.9 35.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 64.6 / 68.8 54.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 35.1 43.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.4 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 9.1 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
QUIN
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
QUIN
13-17-1 (43.3%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
FAIR Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
QUIN
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -0.9
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
QUIN
FAIR
QUIN
ML
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
ATS
48% 16-17
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
TTL
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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