KANSAS CITY
ROOSKC
4-18 | Road
64
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
17-6 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
ROOS
100%
TOMMIES
0%
ROOS
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
KC By 1-7 points
2.7%
KC By 8-14 points
0.5%
STMN By 1-7 points
10.7%
STMN By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
72
KANSAS CITY
St. Thomas-Minnesota
90
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
69
KANSAS CITY
St. Thomas-Minnesota
74
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tommies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tommies (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
STMN @ KC
104 - 64
Feb 1, 2026
KC @ STMN
64 - 99
Mar 1, 2025
KC @ STMN
59 - 65
Jan 25, 2025
STMN @ KC
68 - 65
Feb 3, 2024
STMN @ KC
71 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+68.5% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 17.4
vs
Kansas City: 10.3
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 6.3
vs
Kansas City: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.5%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 72.4%
vs
Kansas City: 59.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 50.5%
vs
Kansas City: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
72.0
64
STMN Score
90.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 28.7
46.0 / 21.0
Assists
17.4 / 10.3
27.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.3 / 4.7
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 40.8
56.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 59.8
78.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 32.4
41.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.3 / 5.4
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 11.4
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
4-27-0
(12.9%)
Margin: -14.5
ATS +/-: -6.4
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
5-23-0
(17.9%)
Margin: -14.5
ATS +/-: -6.4
STMN
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
KC
STMN
KC
ML
64%
21-12
63%
19-11
64%
21-12
67%
20-10
ATS
70%
23-10
67%
20-10
64%
21-12
67%
20-10
TTL
61%
20-13
70%
21-9
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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