SACRED HEART
PIONEERSSHU
10-13 | Road
58
MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
13-9 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
PIONEERS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Merrimack)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRMK -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)
SHU By 1-7 points
12.2%
SHU By 8-14 points
4.0%
MRMK By 1-7 points
24.3%
MRMK By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacred Heart
51
SACRED HEART
Merrimack
60
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
Sacred Heart
69
SACRED HEART
Merrimack
75
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
SHU @ MRMK
48 - 70
Feb 1, 2026
SHU @ MRMK
58 - 75
Dec 29, 2025
MRMK @ SHU
80 - 72
Mar 12, 2025
SHU @ MRMK
62 - 66
Feb 21, 2025
SHU @ MRMK
60 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+66.3% more
Merrimack: 5.3
vs
Sacred Heart: 3.2
Steals (L5)
+47.7% more
Merrimack: 8.6
vs
Sacred Heart: 5.8
Turnovers (L5)
+24.5% more
Merrimack: 11.4
vs
Sacred Heart: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
Merrimack: 76.7%
vs
Sacred Heart: 73.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHU Score
51.0
58
MRMK Score
60.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 41.2
30.0 / 29.0
Assists
10.4 / 19.1
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.2
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 46.7
40.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 73.0
84.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
29.6 / 32.1
35.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.6 / 5.8
11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 9.2
5.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHU
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +1.5
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
SHU
MRMK
SHU
ML
47%
16-18
61%
20-13
65%
22-12
73%
24-9
ATS
53%
18-16
76%
25-8
65%
22-12
73%
24-9
TTL
62%
21-13
58%
19-14
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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