Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaspers @ Mountaineers MAN @ MSM

MANHATTAN

JASPERSMAN

9-14  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

9-14  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
JASPERS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
JASPERS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MANHATTAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Manhattan)
JaspersMAN (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaspers Cover

90.3%

Mountaineers Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MAN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MAN)

MAN By 1-7 points

18.6%

MAN By 8-14 points

26.8%

MSM By 1-7 points

6.8%

MSM By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
56
MANHATTAN
43
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
65
MANHATTAN
70
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaspers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaspers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 99.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 MAN @ MSM 65 - 72
Jan 25, 2025 MAN @ MSM 74 - 64
Jan 10, 2025 MSM @ MAN 75 - 66
Feb 8, 2024 MAN @ MSM 78 - 82
Dec 1, 2023 MSM @ MAN 74 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.4% more
Manhattan: 7.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 4.8
Assists (L5) +28.1% more
Manhattan: 14.3 vs Mount St. Mary's: 10.3
Free Throw % (L5) +20.0%
Manhattan: 86.3% vs Mount St. Mary's: 66.2%
Turnovers (L5) +50.4% more
Mount St. Mary's: 14.3 vs Manhattan: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MAN Score 56.0 65
MSM Score 43.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 33.6 38.0 / 25.0
Assists 10.3 / 14.3 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.5 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 43.0 41.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 66.2 / 86.3 93.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 31.0 42.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.8 / 7.7 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 9.5 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MAN
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MAN
11-19-1 (36.7%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +2.4
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
MAN
MSM
MAN
ML
53% 17-15
52% 16-15
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
ATS
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
61% 19-12
69% 22-10
TTL
81% 26-6
77% 24-7
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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