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IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

19-2  |  Road

95
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

10-11  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
CYCLONES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Kansas State)
CyclonesISU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cyclones Cover

27.4%

Wildcats Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

ISU By 1-7 points

16.9%

ISU By 8-14 points

6.8%

KSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

KSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
61
IOWA STATE
67
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
IOWA STATE
72
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 ISU @ KSU 95 - 61
Mar 8, 2025 ISU @ KSU 73 - 57
Feb 1, 2025 KSU @ ISU 80 - 61
Mar 14, 2024 KSU @ ISU 57 - 76
Mar 9, 2024 ISU @ KSU 58 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +119.8% more
Kansas State: 2.9 vs Iowa State: 1.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.1%
Kansas State: 77.3% vs Iowa State: 68.3%
Steals (L5) +24.4% more
Iowa State: 8.1 vs Kansas State: 6.1
Assists (L5) +19.4% more
Iowa State: 17.6 vs Kansas State: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 61.0 95
KSU Score 67.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 41.9 30.0 / 52.0
Assists 14.2 / 17.6 13.0 / 28.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.3 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 52.2 40.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 68.3 67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 36.9 24.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.1 / 8.1 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 11.1 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
ISU
KSU
ISU
ML
59% 19-13
57% 21-16
69% 22-10
76% 26-8
ATS
62% 20-12
62% 23-14
69% 22-10
76% 26-8
TTL
47% 15-17
54% 20-17
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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