Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Gophers @ Nittany Lions MINN @ PSU

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

10-11  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

9-12  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GOPHERS
0%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
100%
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Minnesota)
Golden GophersMINN (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Gophers Cover

99.9%

Nittany Lions Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MINN -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

MINN By 1-7 points

0.8%

MINN By 8-14 points

4.0%

PSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
MINNESOTA
54
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
70
MINNESOTA
75
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Gophers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Gophers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 MINN @ PSU 75 - 77
Feb 22, 2025 PSU @ MINN 69 - 60
Feb 4, 2025 MINN @ PSU 69 - 61
Mar 2, 2024 PSU @ MINN 70 - 75
Jan 27, 2024 MINN @ PSU 83 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.2% more
Minnesota: 2.1 vs Penn State: 1.0
Steals (L5) +23.4% more
Minnesota: 5.9 vs Penn State: 4.6
Rebounding (L5) +12.4% more
Minnesota: 30.6 vs Penn State: 26.8
Assists (L5) +8.1% more
Minnesota: 15.6 vs Penn State: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 85.0 75
PSU Score 54.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 34.1 39.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.4 / 15.6 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.0 / 2.1 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 43.5 50.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 64.7 89.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 26.8 / 30.6 29.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.6 / 5.9 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 10.4 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
MINN
PSU
MINN
ML
72% 23-9
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
71% 22-9
ATS
72% 23-9
55% 18-15
56% 18-14
71% 22-9
TTL
66% 21-11
52% 17-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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