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TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

13-8  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 2:00 PM ET
CU Events Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

12-9  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
100%
📊
BUFFALOES
0%
HORNED FROGS --
BUFFALOES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Colorado)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 BuffaloesCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

34.5%

Buffaloes Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

TCU By 1-7 points

20.1%

TCU By 8-14 points

9.3%

COLO By 1-7 points

27.4%

COLO By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
TCU
72
COLORADO
Simulated Score
70
TCU
75
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buffaloes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Buffaloes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 TCU @ COLO 61 - 87
Mar 11, 2025 COLO @ TCU 69 - 67
Mar 8, 2025 TCU @ COLO 56 - 76
Feb 2, 2025 COLO @ TCU 57 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Colorado: 74.3% vs TCU: 67.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Colorado: 35.2% vs TCU: 33.0%
Blocks (L5) +47.2% more
TCU: 3.2 vs Colorado: 1.7
Turnovers (L5) +23.3% more
TCU: 11.5 vs Colorado: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 68.0 61
COLO Score 72.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 33.0 48.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.2 / 15.2 24.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 47.7 56.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 67.3 46.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 26.7 / 31.5 41.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.7 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 11.5 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
TCU
COLO
TCU
ML
61% 20-13
74% 26-9
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
ATS
73% 24-9
74% 26-9
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
TTL
45% 15-18
66% 23-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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