PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
17-4 | Road
93
MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
8-12 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
TERRAPINS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
--
TERRAPINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
92.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MD +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)
PUR By 1-7 points
26.8%
PUR By 8-14 points
24.3%
MD By 1-7 points
16.9%
MD By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
49
PURDUE
Maryland
43
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Purdue
65
PURDUE
Maryland
82
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Boilermakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Terrapins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Terrapins (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Terrapins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 92.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
PUR @ MD
93 - 63
Dec 8, 2024
MD @ PUR
78 - 83
Jan 2, 2024
PUR @ MD
67 - 53
Feb 16, 2023
PUR @ MD
54 - 68
Jan 22, 2023
MD @ PUR
55 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+40.8% more
Purdue: 17.0
vs
Maryland: 10.1
Steals (L5)
+20.2% more
Purdue: 5.1
vs
Maryland: 4.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.9%
Purdue: 50.2%
vs
Maryland: 39.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Purdue: 70.0%
vs
Maryland: 61.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
49.0
93
MD Score
43.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 34.7
35.0 / 50.0
Assists
10.1 / 17.0
5.0 / 18.0
Blocks
1.5 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.2 / 50.2
39.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
61.1 / 70.0
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 29.0
26.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.1 / 5.1
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 7.7
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
MD
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
PUR
MD
PUR
ML
70%
23-10
67%
26-13
67%
22-11
66%
25-13
ATS
64%
21-12
64%
25-14
67%
22-11
66%
25-13
TTL
64%
21-12
51%
20-19
100%
33-0
100%
38-0
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