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ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

14-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Stephen C. O'Connell Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

15-6  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
📊
GATORS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE --
GATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Alabama)
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 GatorsFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

99.9%

Gators Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALA -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-7 points

0.6%

ALA By 8-14 points

3.3%

FLA By 1-7 points

0.1%

FLA By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
103
ALABAMA
71
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
85
ALABAMA
72
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u175.5 Loss
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u175.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 ALA @ FLA 77 - 100
Mar 15, 2025 ALA @ FLA 82 - 104
Mar 5, 2025 FLA @ ALA 99 - 94
Mar 15, 2024 FLA @ ALA 102 - 88
Mar 5, 2024 ALA @ FLA 87 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.4% more
Alabama: 7.4 vs Florida: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.2%
Alabama: 76.5% vs Florida: 67.2%
Blocks (L5) +49.1% more
Florida: 5.9 vs Alabama: 4.0
Turnovers (L5) +33.6% more
Florida: 10.5 vs Alabama: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 103.0 77
FLA Score 71.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 32.5 23.0 / 41.0
Assists 19.1 / 14.5 24.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.0 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 42.9 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 76.5 65.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 44.0 / 39.8 44.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.4 13.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 7.9 2.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
FLA Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
ALA
FLA
ALA
ML
77% 27-8
63% 22-13
63% 22-13
58% 19-14
ATS
69% 24-11
60% 21-14
63% 22-13
58% 19-14
TTL
63% 22-13
63% 22-13
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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