UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
12-8 | Road
68
UALBANY
GREAT DANESUALB
7-15 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
0%
GREAT DANES
100%
RETRIEVERS
--
GREAT DANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMBC -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
UMBC By 1-7 points
10.7%
UMBC By 8-14 points
21.6%
UALB By 1-7 points
2.7%
UALB By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
80
UMBC
UAlbany
62
UALBANY
Simulated Score
UMBC
74
UMBC
UAlbany
78
UALBANY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Great Danes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Great Danes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UALB @ UMBC
62 - 66
Jan 31, 2026
UMBC @ UALB
68 - 65
Feb 27, 2025
UALB @ UMBC
78 - 74
Jan 23, 2025
UMBC @ UALB
92 - 87
Feb 17, 2024
UALB @ UMBC
75 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
UMBC: 78.8%
vs
UAlbany: 70.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
UMBC: 32.5%
vs
UAlbany: 28.9%
Blocks (L5)
+69.3% more
UAlbany: 3.3
vs
UMBC: 1.9
Turnovers (L5)
+57.0% more
UAlbany: 11.8
vs
UMBC: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
80.0
68
UALB Score
62.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 32.5
33.0 / 35.0
Assists
11.3 / 9.0
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.3 / 1.9
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 44.0
43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 78.8
50.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 33.0
34.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.5 / 4.4
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 7.5
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
UALB
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
UALB
11-18-0
(37.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
UALB
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UALB
UMBC
UALB
UMBC
ML
55%
17-14
58%
18-13
71%
22-9
55%
17-14
ATS
77%
24-7
68%
21-10
72%
23-9
55%
17-14
TTL
61%
19-12
39%
12-19
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
