UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
16-5 | Road
84
WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
4-18 | Home
44
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
0%
LEATHERNECKS
100%
SKYHAWKS
--
LEATHERNECKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIU +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)
UTM By 1-7 points
24.3%
UTM By 8-14 points
26.8%
WIU By 1-7 points
12.2%
WIU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Martin
87
UT MARTIN
Western Illinois
78
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
UT Martin
68
UT MARTIN
Western Illinois
72
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Skyhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Leathernecks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Leathernecks (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Leathernecks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UTM @ WIU
84 - 44
Jan 1, 2026
WIU @ UTM
60 - 67
Feb 8, 2025
WIU @ UTM
70 - 81
Jan 9, 2025
UTM @ WIU
85 - 83
Feb 10, 2024
UTM @ WIU
62 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+69.5% more
UT Martin: 4.4
vs
Western Illinois: 1.4
Turnovers (L5)
+49.5% more
UT Martin: 17.5
vs
Western Illinois: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+41.7% more
UT Martin: 13.1
vs
Western Illinois: 7.6
Rebounding (L5)
+24.5% more
UT Martin: 40.8
vs
Western Illinois: 30.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTM Score
87.0
84
WIU Score
78.0
44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 31.9
25.0 / 33.0
Assists
7.6 / 13.1
7.0 / 22.0
Blocks
1.4 / 4.4
0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
39.2 / 43.9
27.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
66.2 / 66.9
67.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
30.8 / 40.8
20.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.8
4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 17.5
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
WIU
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
UTM
WIU
UTM
ML
45%
14-17
69%
22-10
61%
19-12
69%
20-9
ATS
52%
16-15
56%
18-14
61%
19-12
69%
20-9
TTL
45%
14-17
44%
14-18
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
