Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Eagles MORG @ COPP

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

8-13  |  Road

89
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 4:30 PM ET
Physical Education Complex
View Odds Details →

COPPIN STATE

EAGLESCOPP

3-19  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
BEARS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
COPPIN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Coppin State)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 EaglesCOPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

5.5%

Eagles Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COPP -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COPP)

MORG By 1-7 points

4.0%

MORG By 8-14 points

0.8%

COPP By 1-7 points

13.7%

COPP By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
59
MORGAN STATE
75
COPPIN STATE
Simulated Score
73
MORGAN STATE
65
COPPIN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bears (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 COPP @ MORG 66 - 70
Jan 31, 2026 MORG @ COPP 89 - 80
Mar 6, 2025 MORG @ COPP 75 - 82
Jan 25, 2025 COPP @ MORG 64 - 80
Mar 7, 2024 COPP @ MORG 60 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.8% more
Coppin State: 17.3 vs Morgan State: 13.2
Steals (L5) +27.3% more
Coppin State: 8.2 vs Morgan State: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +79.0% more
Morgan State: 6.2 vs Coppin State: 1.3
Assists (L5) +24.4% more
Morgan State: 13.8 vs Coppin State: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 59.0 89
COPP Score 75.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 35.9 38.0 / 38.0
Assists 10.4 / 13.8 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.3 / 6.2 0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 45.2 45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 74.5 57.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 30.5 / 38.2 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.5 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 13.2 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
COPP
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -14.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
COPP
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -14.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
COPP
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COPP
MORG
COPP
MORG
ML
65% 20-11
50% 14-14
79% 19-5
58% 14-10
ATS
68% 21-10
50% 14-14
79% 19-5
58% 14-10
TTL
52% 16-15
50% 14-14
100% 24-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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