NEW HAVEN
CHARGERSNHVN
9-12 | Road
81
SAINT FRANCIS
RED FLASHSFPA
6-14 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
RED FLASH
100%
CHARGERS
--
RED FLASH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW HAVEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Haven)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NHVN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NHVN)
NHVN By 1-7 points
27.4%
NHVN By 8-14 points
21.6%
SFPA By 1-7 points
20.1%
SFPA By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New Haven
73
NEW HAVEN
Saint Francis
69
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
New Haven
68
NEW HAVEN
Saint Francis
73
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Chargers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Flash
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Chargers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Red Flash (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u131.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
SFPA @ NHVN
73 - 67
Jan 31, 2026
NHVN @ SFPA
81 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.6% more
New Haven: 11.8
vs
Saint Francis: 10.4
Blocks (L5)
+107.5% more
Saint Francis: 3.0
vs
New Haven: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+57.3% more
Saint Francis: 7.6
vs
New Haven: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+30.0% more
Saint Francis: 15.9
vs
New Haven: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NHVN Score
73.0
81
SFPA Score
69.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 22.8
33.0 / 50.0
Assists
15.9 / 12.2
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.0 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 43.9
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 71.5
67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
32.2 / 30.7
30.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.6 / 4.8
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 11.8
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NHVN
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
SFPA
7-24-0
(22.6%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NHVN
Advantage
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
SFPA
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -3.5
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
NHVN
SFPA
NHVN
ML
68%
21-10
71%
22-9
67%
20-10
68%
21-10
ATS
68%
21-10
74%
23-8
67%
20-10
68%
21-10
TTL
58%
18-13
42%
13-18
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
