Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Colonels @ Lions NICH @ ETAM

NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

8-13  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 6:00 PM ET
The Field House
View Odds Details →

EAST TEXAS A&M

LIONSETAM

8-13  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
COLONELS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Nicholls)
ColonelsNICH (-3.5) 0 LionsETAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

69.1%

Lions Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NICH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)

NICH By 1-7 points

27.2%

NICH By 8-14 points

23.0%

ETAM By 1-7 points

18.6%

ETAM By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
NICHOLLS
65
EAST TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
72
NICHOLLS
78
EAST TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colonels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colonels (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 NICH @ ETAM 72 - 68
Jan 3, 2026 ETAM @ NICH 58 - 80
Feb 8, 2025 ETAM @ NICH 65 - 81
Jan 6, 2025 NICH @ ETAM 83 - 61
Mar 11, 2024 ETAM @ NICH 51 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.8% more
Nicholls: 10.4 vs East Texas A&M: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +20.8% more
Nicholls: 3.2 vs East Texas A&M: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +19.4% more
Nicholls: 13.2 vs East Texas A&M: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Nicholls: 65.9% vs East Texas A&M: 58.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 70.0 72
ETAM Score 65.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 30.6 31.0 / 28.0
Assists 15.1 / 11.7 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.2 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 37.8 37.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 58.3 / 65.9 75.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 29.5 37.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.4 / 10.4 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.2 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
ETAM
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
ETAM
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETAM
NICH
ETAM
NICH
ML
52% 13-12
53% 17-15
62% 15-9
68% 19-9
ATS
56% 14-11
47% 15-17
62% 15-9
68% 19-9
TTL
68% 17-8
56% 18-14
100% 24-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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