AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
14-6 | Road
81
WEST GEORGIA
WOLVESWGA
10-11 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
WOLVES
0%
GOVERNORS
--
WOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
WEST GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (West Georgia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WGA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WGA)
APSU By 1-7 points
3.3%
APSU By 8-14 points
0.6%
WGA By 1-7 points
12.2%
WGA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
66
AUSTIN PEAY
West Georgia
83
WEST GEORGIA
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
65
AUSTIN PEAY
West Georgia
78
WEST GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolves (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Wolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
APSU @ WGA
81 - 78
Feb 26, 2025
APSU @ WGA
70 - 73
Jan 9, 2025
WGA @ APSU
72 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+127.8% more
West Georgia: 5.4
vs
Austin Peay: 2.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
West Georgia: 39.7%
vs
Austin Peay: 37.7%
Steals (L5)
+33.2% more
Austin Peay: 8.0
vs
West Georgia: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+23.0% more
Austin Peay: 15.9
vs
West Georgia: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
66.0
81
WGA Score
83.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 37.7
31.0 / 23.0
Assists
12.2 / 15.9
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 48.4
44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
58.3 / 79.7
68.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 35.1
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.3 / 8.0
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 12.6
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
WGA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
WGA
Advantage
21-9-0
(70.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
WGA
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WGA
APSU
WGA
APSU
ML
58%
18-13
53%
16-14
61%
19-12
59%
16-11
ATS
71%
22-9
57%
17-13
61%
19-12
59%
16-11
TTL
55%
17-14
57%
17-13
100%
31-0
100%
27-0
