Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Lumberjacks SELA @ SFA

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

6-15  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 6:00 PM ET
William R. Johnson Coliseum
View Odds Details →

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

18-3  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
LUMBERJACKS
0%
LIONS --
LUMBERJACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
LionsSELA (-3.5) 0 LumberjacksSFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

1.8%

Lumberjacks Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)

SELA By 1-7 points

1.4%

SELA By 8-14 points

0.2%

SFA By 1-7 points

6.8%

SFA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
64
SE LOUISIANA
85
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
63
SE LOUISIANA
75
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lumberjacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lumberjacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lumberjacks (-11) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Lumberjacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 SELA @ SFA 58 - 85
Jan 3, 2026 SFA @ SELA 73 - 63
Jan 13, 2025 SELA @ SFA 66 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.9% more
Stephen F. Austin: 11.8 vs SE Louisiana: 9.5
Steals (L5) +22.9% more
Stephen F. Austin: 7.2 vs SE Louisiana: 5.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.9% more
Stephen F. Austin: 37.5 vs SE Louisiana: 34.1
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Stephen F. Austin: 45.7% vs SE Louisiana: 39.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 64.0 58
SFA Score 85.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 30.5 57.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.8 / 9.5 17.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 39.1 55.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 68.0 / 72.4 64.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 34.1 28.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.8 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 15.6 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
SELA
SFA
SELA
ML
59% 17-12
70% 21-9
79% 23-6
66% 19-10
ATS
59% 17-12
60% 18-12
79% 23-6
67% 20-10
TTL
62% 18-11
70% 21-9
100% 29-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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