UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
10-11 | Road
106
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
9-12 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
VAQUEROS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Incarnate Word)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UIW -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
RGV By 1-7 points
1.1%
RGV By 8-14 points
0.1%
UIW By 1-7 points
5.8%
UIW By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
63
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Incarnate Word
85
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
70
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Incarnate Word
75
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u142.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
RGV @ UIW
106 - 93
Jan 5, 2026
UIW @ RGV
67 - 80
Feb 17, 2025
UIW @ RGV
66 - 60
Jan 20, 2025
RGV @ UIW
85 - 78
Dec 30, 2023
UIW @ RGV
74 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.8% more
Incarnate Word: 5.0
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+22.2% more
Incarnate Word: 14.7
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 12.1
Assists (L5)
+38.5% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 15.7
vs
Incarnate Word: 9.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.4%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 80.4%
vs
Incarnate Word: 67.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RGV Score
63.0
106
UIW Score
85.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 32.7
45.0 / 48.0
Assists
9.6 / 15.7
14.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 45.9
56.0 / 62.0
Free Throw %
67.0 / 80.4
77.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 32.7
31.0 / 23.0
Steals
6.2 / 6.9
1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 12.1
14.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
UIW
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
RGV
UIW
RGV
ML
47%
14-16
53%
16-14
76%
22-7
54%
15-13
ATS
53%
16-14
53%
16-14
77%
23-7
54%
15-13
TTL
60%
18-12
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
28-0
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