MAINE
BLACK BEARSME
5-17 | Road
77
UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
8-14 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK BEARS
0%
RIVER HAWKS
100%
BLACK BEARS
--
RIVER HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MAINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Maine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ME -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)
ME By 1-7 points
16.9%
ME By 8-14 points
26.2%
UML By 1-7 points
5.8%
UML By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Maine
79
MAINE
UMass Lowell
65
UMASS LOWELL
Simulated Score
Maine
68
MAINE
UMass Lowell
75
UMASS LOWELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
River Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
River Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
UML @ ME
67 - 56
Jan 31, 2026
ME @ UML
77 - 91
Mar 8, 2025
UML @ ME
64 - 72
Mar 4, 2025
UML @ ME
70 - 71
Jan 23, 2025
ME @ UML
86 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+43.7% more
Maine: 15.1
vs
UMass Lowell: 8.5
Steals (L5)
+42.2% more
Maine: 7.9
vs
UMass Lowell: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.2%
Maine: 75.5%
vs
UMass Lowell: 67.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Maine: 31.0%
vs
UMass Lowell: 26.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ME Score
79.0
77
UML Score
65.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.3 / 31.0
36.0 / 29.0
Assists
8.5 / 15.1
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.5
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.0 / 44.9
58.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
67.3 / 75.5
93.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 26.2
46.0 / 11.0
Steals
4.6 / 7.9
7.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 8.6
18.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
UML
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
UML
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UML
ME
UML
ME
ML
70%
23-10
45%
14-17
58%
19-14
52%
16-15
ATS
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
52%
16-15
TTL
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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