Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson @ Bulldogs HARV @ YALE

HARVARD

CRIMSONHARV

11-9  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 7:00 PM ET
John J. Lee Amphitheater
View Odds Details →

YALE

BULLDOGSYALE

16-3  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
CRIMSON --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
YALE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Yale)
CrimsonHARV (-3.5) 0 BulldogsYALE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Cover

1.8%

Bulldogs Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around YALE -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YALE)

HARV By 1-7 points

1.4%

HARV By 8-14 points

0.2%

YALE By 1-7 points

6.8%

YALE By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
54
HARVARD
75
YALE
Simulated Score
68
HARVARD
75
YALE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 YALE @ HARV 76 - 75
Jan 31, 2026 HARV @ YALE 67 - 65
Mar 1, 2025 YALE @ HARV 69 - 74
Jan 25, 2025 HARV @ YALE 55 - 84
Mar 2, 2024 HARV @ YALE 60 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +23.5% more
Yale: 35.8 vs Harvard: 29.0
Assists (L5) +19.3% more
Yale: 15.9 vs Harvard: 13.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Yale: 44.1% vs Harvard: 37.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Yale: 85.9% vs Harvard: 81.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HARV Score 54.0 67
YALE Score 75.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.1 / 37.7 40.0 / 47.0
Assists 15.9 / 13.4 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.3 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.6 / 48.5 43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 85.9 / 81.9 82.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 29.0 29.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.5 / 7.3 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 10.9 6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HARV
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
YALE Advantage
24-7-0 (77.4%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HARV Advantage
12-13-1 (48.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
YALE
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4% Total +/-: -4.3
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YALE
HARV
YALE
HARV
ML
48% 15-16
45% 13-16
58% 18-13
52% 15-14
ATS
65% 20-11
45% 13-16
58% 18-13
52% 15-14
TTL
61% 19-12
41% 12-17
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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