Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Commodores MISS @ VAN

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

11-9  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 6:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

18-3  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
COMMODORES
100%
REBELS --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Ole Miss)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

88.5%

Commodores Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MISS -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-7 points

20.1%

MISS By 8-14 points

27.2%

VAN By 1-7 points

8.0%

VAN By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
OLE MISS
59
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
68
OLE MISS
75
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 VAN @ MISS 89 - 86
Jan 31, 2026 MISS @ VAN 68 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 MISS @ VAN 72 - 77
Jan 13, 2024 VAN @ MISS 56 - 69
Feb 4, 2023 MISS @ VAN 71 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +91.6% more
Vanderbilt: 6.1 vs Ole Miss: 3.2
Assists (L5) +42.0% more
Vanderbilt: 15.1 vs Ole Miss: 10.6
Steals (L5) +22.3% more
Vanderbilt: 7.9 vs Ole Miss: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Vanderbilt: 82.0% vs Ole Miss: 74.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 71.0 68
VAN Score 59.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 32.1 25.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.1 / 10.6 13.0 / 6.0
Blocks 6.1 / 3.2 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 38.6 44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 82.0 / 74.5 71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 36.8 33.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.9 / 6.5 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 8.1 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
MISS
VAN
MISS
ML
69% 25-11
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
ATS
78% 28-8
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
TTL
58% 21-15
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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