Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Catamounts SAM @ WCU

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

10-12  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sun, Feb 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Ramsey Center
View Odds Details →

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

8-12  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
CATAMOUNTS
100%
BULLDOGS --
CATAMOUNTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Samford)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 CatamountsWCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

99.9%

Catamounts Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAM -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

SAM By 1-7 points

0.8%

SAM By 8-14 points

4.0%

WCU By 1-7 points

0.1%

WCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SAMFORD
42
WESTERN CAROLINA
Simulated Score
72
SAMFORD
75
WESTERN CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Catamounts Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Catamounts (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 SAM @ WCU 88 - 74
Jan 7, 2026 WCU @ SAM 77 - 82
Feb 22, 2025 WCU @ SAM 72 - 93
Jan 4, 2025 SAM @ WCU 88 - 69
Feb 14, 2024 WCU @ SAM 62 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +8.8% more
Samford: 5.2 vs Western Carolina: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Samford: 66.6% vs Western Carolina: 63.3%
Turnovers (L5) +75.1% more
Western Carolina: 9.9 vs Samford: 5.6
Blocks (L5) +55.7% more
Western Carolina: 3.1 vs Samford: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 73.0 88
WCU Score 42.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 32.5 24.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.2 / 14.6 7.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.0 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 43.3 38.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 63.3 / 66.6 75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 32.5 29.0 / 42.0
Steals 4.8 / 5.2 3.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 5.6 7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
WCU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
WCU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WCU
SAM
WCU
SAM
ML
63% 19-11
65% 20-11
76% 22-7
68% 21-10
ATS
73% 22-8
68% 21-10
77% 23-7
68% 21-10
TTL
67% 20-10
35% 11-20
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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