CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
23-25 | Road
125
MIAMI
HEATMIA
26-23 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
HEAT
100%
BULLS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHI By 1-7 points
26.8%
CHI By 8-14 points
18.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
122
CHICAGO
Miami
120
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Chicago
109
CHICAGO
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
CHI @ MIA
91 - 134
Jan 31, 2026
CHI @ MIA
125 - 118
Jan 29, 2026
MIA @ CHI
116 - 113
Nov 21, 2025
MIA @ CHI
143 - 107
Apr 16, 2025
MIA @ CHI
109 - 90
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Chicago: 40.5%
vs
Miami: 35.1%
Steals (L5)
+81.8% more
Miami: 8.9
vs
Chicago: 4.9
Turnovers (L5)
+9.7% more
Miami: 14.5
vs
Chicago: 13.2
Rebounding (L5)
+9.4% more
Miami: 50.9
vs
Chicago: 46.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
122.0
125
MIA Score
120.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 40.5
28.0 / 50.0
Assists
28.0 / 28.6
26.0 / 34.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.7
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 46.1
43.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
83.1 / 80.6
74.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
50.9 / 46.5
47.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.9 / 4.9
17.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 13.2
19.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHI
MIA
CHI
ML
48%
46-50
56%
54-42
59%
48-34
57%
46-35
ATS
51%
49-47
65%
62-33-1
59%
48-34
57%
46-35
TTL
59%
57-39
58%
56-40
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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