ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
24-26 | Road
124
INDIANA
PACERSIND
12-36 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
PACERS
100%
HAWKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
25.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
26.2%
IND By 1-7 points
13.7%
IND By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
126
ATLANTA
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Indiana
125
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.5
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
ATL @ IND
124 - 129
Jan 26, 2026
IND @ ATL
116 - 132
Oct 31, 2025
ATL @ IND
128 - 108
Mar 8, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 120
Mar 6, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+14.1% more
Atlanta: 8.8
vs
Indiana: 7.6
Blocks (L5)
+14.0% more
Atlanta: 4.7
vs
Indiana: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
Atlanta: 80.1%
vs
Indiana: 76.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Atlanta: 38.2%
vs
Indiana: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
126.0
124
IND Score
118.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 38.2
47.0 / 39.0
Assists
30.1 / 26.9
29.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 44.3
54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 80.1
86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 44.1
51.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.8
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 12.8
23.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
ATL
IND
ATL
ML
48%
47-50
50%
52-52
54%
45-38
55%
48-40
ATS
59%
57-40
53%
55-48-1
54%
45-38
55%
48-40
TTL
54%
52-45
53%
55-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
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