Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Spartans UNM @ SJSU

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

17-4  |  Road

90
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 10:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

6-15  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
LOBOS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

27.4%

Spartans Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJSU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

UNM By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNM By 8-14 points

24.3%

SJSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SJSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
70
NEW MEXICO
64
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
79
NEW MEXICO
67
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Lobos (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SJSU @ UNM 77 - 93
Jan 31, 2026 UNM @ SJSU 90 - 80
Dec 20, 2025 SJSU @ UNM 65 - 88
Mar 13, 2025 SJSU @ UNM 52 - 63
Jan 14, 2025 UNM @ SJSU 70 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +76.3% more
New Mexico: 3.8 vs San José State: 0.9
Steals (L5) +55.8% more
New Mexico: 9.4 vs San José State: 4.2
Assists (L5) +50.7% more
New Mexico: 17.3 vs San José State: 8.6
Rebounding (L5) +35.4% more
New Mexico: 38.8 vs San José State: 25.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 70.0 90
SJSU Score 64.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 40.0 34.0 / 48.0
Assists 8.6 / 17.3 14.0 / 16.0
Blocks 0.9 / 3.8 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 37.9 / 46.0 47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 67.7 / 71.1 73.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 25.0 / 38.8 29.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.2 / 9.4 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 10.5 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
UNM
SJSU
UNM
ML
73% 24-9
57% 21-16
62% 20-12
74% 25-9
ATS
73% 24-9
57% 21-16
62% 20-12
74% 25-9
TTL
61% 20-13
41% 15-22
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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