OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
11-12 | Road
78
SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
10-13 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
100%
TOREROS
0%
BEAVERS
--
TOREROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USD -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USD)
ORST By 1-7 points
0.8%
ORST By 8-14 points
0.1%
USD By 1-7 points
4.8%
USD By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon State
62
OREGON STATE
San Diego
85
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Oregon State
69
OREGON STATE
San Diego
76
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Toreros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Toreros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Toreros (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Toreros (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
USD @ ORST
82 - 92
Jan 31, 2026
ORST @ USD
78 - 76
Feb 22, 2025
ORST @ USD
83 - 73
Jan 4, 2025
USD @ ORST
54 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+58.1% more
San Diego: 7.7
vs
Oregon State: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+50.3% more
San Diego: 16.7
vs
Oregon State: 11.1
Blocks (L5)
+34.7% more
San Diego: 2.7
vs
Oregon State: 2.0
Rebounding (L5)
+25.9% more
San Diego: 39.1
vs
Oregon State: 31.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORST Score
62.0
78
USD Score
85.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 30.1
31.0 / 38.0
Assists
16.7 / 11.1
16.0 / 21.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.0
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 40.8
43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 79.8
75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
39.1 / 31.1
42.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.7 / 4.8
12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.8
20.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
ORST
USD
ORST
ML
58%
19-14
45%
15-18
70%
23-10
59%
19-13
ATS
55%
18-15
48%
16-17
70%
23-10
59%
19-13
TTL
61%
20-13
55%
18-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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