Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Trojans APP @ TROY

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

14-9  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 4:30 PM ET
Trojan Arena
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROJANSTROY

15-7  |  Home

44
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
TROJANS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Troy)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 TrojansTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

4.5%

Trojans Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

APP By 1-7 points

3.3%

APP By 8-14 points

0.6%

TROY By 1-7 points

12.2%

TROY By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
56
APP STATE
73
TROY
Simulated Score
74
APP STATE
70
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 APP @ TROY 66 - 44
Jan 2, 2025 TROY @ APP 69 - 61
Jan 6, 2024 APP @ TROY 62 - 66
Jan 14, 2023 TROY @ APP 45 - 58
Feb 17, 2022 TROY @ APP 67 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +62.1% more
Troy: 7.8 vs App State: 4.8
Assists (L5) +33.7% more
Troy: 15.5 vs App State: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Troy: 72.8% vs App State: 70.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Troy: 43.5% vs App State: 41.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 56.0 66
TROY Score 73.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 35.0 15.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.5 / 11.6 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.1 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 41.4 33.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 70.2 100.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 40.9 29.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.8 / 4.8 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.6 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TROY
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
APP
TROY
APP
ML
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
ATS
65% 22-12
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
TTL
56% 19-15
69% 22-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 6 hours ago
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
kwch 4 days ago
Kentucky Fans Weigh In on Senate Bill That Could Transform Colle…
wkyt 5 days, 1 hour ago
Kentucky Appeals Court Ruling Shakes Up Eligibility for Mark Mit…
cbssports 6 days ago
Houston Cougars Set for Nationally Televised Road Battle at Kans…
headtopics 1 week ago