MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
13-9 | Road
54
PORTLAND STATE
VIKINGSPRST
13-6 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
VIKINGS
100%
BOBCATS
--
VIKINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Montana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)
MTST By 1-7 points
6.8%
MTST By 8-14 points
16.9%
PRST By 1-7 points
1.4%
PRST By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Montana State
86
MONTANA STATE
Portland State
65
PORTLAND STATE
Simulated Score
Montana State
71
MONTANA STATE
Portland State
75
PORTLAND STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Vikings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (-4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Vikings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.0
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u139.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
PRST @ MTST
69 - 84
Jan 31, 2026
MTST @ PRST
54 - 63
Feb 27, 2025
MTST @ PRST
52 - 69
Feb 1, 2025
PRST @ MTST
73 - 74
Feb 22, 2024
PRST @ MTST
67 - 72
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.8%
Montana State: 42.2%
vs
Portland State: 28.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Montana State: 76.1%
vs
Portland State: 72.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+25.6% more
Portland State: 13.5
vs
Montana State: 10.8
Steals (L5)
+23.3% more
Portland State: 8.5
vs
Montana State: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTST Score
86.0
54
PRST Score
65.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 42.2
37.0 / 20.0
Assists
13.7 / 11.2
20.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.2
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 45.3
45.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
72.0 / 76.1
67.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 34.0
36.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.9
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 10.8
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
PRST
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
PRST
Advantage
18-9-1
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
PRST
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PRST
MTST
PRST
MTST
ML
65%
20-11
52%
16-15
71%
22-9
67%
20-10
ATS
71%
22-9
52%
16-15
71%
22-9
67%
20-10
TTL
47%
14-16-1
65%
20-11
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
