Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Hornets MONT @ SAC

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

13-9  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

7-13  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 HornetsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

42.1%

Hornets Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MONT By 1-7 points

26.8%

MONT By 8-14 points

18.6%

SAC By 1-7 points

23.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
81
MONTANA
79
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
78
MONTANA
65
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 SAC @ MONT 73 - 81
Jan 31, 2026 MONT @ SAC 79 - 86
Feb 27, 2025 MONT @ SAC 60 - 54
Feb 1, 2025 SAC @ MONT 59 - 87
Feb 22, 2024 SAC @ MONT 61 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
Montana: 13.7 vs Sacramento State: 10.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Montana: 51.1% vs Sacramento State: 46.3%
Blocks (L5) +28.2% more
Sacramento State: 2.7 vs Montana: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 81.0 79
SAC Score 79.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 32.5 46.0 / 37.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.5 22.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 51.1 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 83.5 / 83.3 71.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 30.2 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.5 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 13.7 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MONT
SAC
MONT
ML
57% 17-13
39% 13-20
87% 26-4
73% 24-9
ATS
73% 22-8
55% 18-15
87% 27-4
73% 24-9
TTL
60% 18-12
59% 19-13-1
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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