UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
12-9 | Road
80
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-14 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
ROADRUNNERS
100%
AGGIES
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUB +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
UCD By 1-7 points
26.8%
UCD By 8-14 points
18.6%
CSUB By 1-7 points
23.0%
CSUB By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
83
UC DAVIS
Cal State Bakersfield
81
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
UC Davis
68
UC DAVIS
Cal State Bakersfield
63
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Aggies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UCD @ CSUB
80 - 72
Jan 3, 2026
CSUB @ UCD
81 - 79
Feb 20, 2025
CSUB @ UCD
71 - 66
Jan 2, 2025
UCD @ CSUB
64 - 75
Feb 24, 2024
UCD @ CSUB
56 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+36.4% more
UC Davis: 17.3
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 11.0
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
UC Davis: 36.1
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 31.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
UC Davis: 39.0%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 33.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
UC Davis: 68.2%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 65.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
83.0
80
CSUB Score
81.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 39.0
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
11.0 / 17.3
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.1 / 43.0
48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
65.6 / 68.2
70.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 36.1
30.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.4
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.7
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
UCD
CSUB
UCD
ML
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
64%
21-12
ATS
61%
19-12
61%
20-13
71%
22-9
64%
21-12
TTL
58%
18-13
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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