Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Jaguars GAST @ USA

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

9-13  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

15-6  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
PANTHERS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Georgia State)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

99.4%

Jaguars Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GAST -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

GAST By 1-7 points

3.3%

GAST By 8-14 points

10.7%

USA By 1-7 points

0.5%

USA By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
87
GEORGIA STATE
62
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
68
GEORGIA STATE
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 GAST @ USA 67 - 69
Jan 2, 2025 USA @ GAST 77 - 51
Jan 6, 2024 GAST @ USA 90 - 76
Dec 31, 2022 USA @ GAST 58 - 68
Feb 5, 2022 USA @ GAST 62 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.0% more
Georgia State: 2.9 vs South Alabama: 1.7
Turnovers (L5) +30.2% more
Georgia State: 8.6 vs South Alabama: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5) +26.2%
Georgia State: 85.1% vs South Alabama: 58.9%
Rebounding (L5) +13.1% more
South Alabama: 36.4 vs Georgia State: 32.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 87.0 67
USA Score 62.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 32.7 19.0 / 36.0
Assists 10.7 / 10.7 13.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 38.6 52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 58.9 / 85.1 53.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 32.2 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 6.0 / 8.6 5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
GAST
USA
GAST
ML
47% 15-17
56% 18-14
57% 17-13
71% 22-9
ATS
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
57% 17-13
71% 22-9
TTL
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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