NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
18-5 | Road
89
SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
12-11 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
100%
COYOTES
0%
BISON
--
COYOTES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
188.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Dakota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDAK -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDAK)
NDSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
NDSU By 8-14 points
4.8%
SDAK By 1-7 points
25.3%
SDAK By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
North Dakota State
90
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota
98
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
North Dakota State
69
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota
73
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Coyotes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Coyotes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Coyotes (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Coyotes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 188.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
NDSU @ SDAK
89 - 84
Dec 31, 2025
SDAK @ NDSU
61 - 84
Mar 7, 2025
SDAK @ NDSU
85 - 84
Feb 26, 2025
SDAK @ NDSU
78 - 82
Jan 18, 2025
NDSU @ SDAK
103 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.9% more
North Dakota State: 4.0
vs
South Dakota: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+30.7% more
North Dakota State: 8.1
vs
South Dakota: 5.6
Assists (L5)
+13.2% more
North Dakota State: 14.6
vs
South Dakota: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.1%
North Dakota State: 42.1%
vs
South Dakota: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score
90.0
89
SDAK Score
98.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 42.1
32.0 / 45.0
Assists
12.7 / 14.6
14.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.0
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 49.6
47.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 78.9
87.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 34.1
26.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.6 / 8.1
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 8.7
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
SDAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
SDAK
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
NDSU
SDAK
NDSU
ML
70%
21-9
49%
17-18
63%
19-11
59%
20-14
ATS
70%
21-9
54%
19-16
63%
19-11
59%
20-14
TTL
67%
20-10
43%
15-20
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
