Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Wildcats SUU @ ACU

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

7-15  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 4:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Abilene)
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

10-10  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
102.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Abilene Christian)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

27.4%

Wildcats Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ACU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

SUU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SUU By 8-14 points

6.8%

ACU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ACU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
48
SOUTHERN UTAH
54
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
72
SOUTHERN UTAH
78
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 102.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 SUU @ ACU 83 - 87
Jan 31, 2026 SUU @ ACU 79 - 76
Jan 17, 2026 ACU @ SUU 52 - 74
Feb 20, 2025 SUU @ ACU 59 - 75
Feb 8, 2025 ACU @ SUU 84 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +133.8% more
Abilene Christian: 10.7 vs Southern Utah: 4.6
Rebounding (L5) +10.4% more
Southern Utah: 34.3 vs Abilene Christian: 30.7
Blocks (L5) +9.2% more
Southern Utah: 3.8 vs Abilene Christian: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Southern Utah: 72.8% vs Abilene Christian: 66.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 48.0 79
ACU Score 54.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 34.8 35.0 / 50.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.3 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.8 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 44.7 52.0 / 67.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 72.8 50.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 34.3 17.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.7 / 4.6 12.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 13.1 9.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
SUU
ACU
SUU
ML
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
ATS
55% 18-15
71% 22-9
70% 23-10
69% 22-10
TTL
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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