Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Hornets SA @ CHA

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

32-15  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

21-28  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
HORNETS
0%
SPURS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Charlotte)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

46.0%

Hornets Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)

SA By 1-7 points

24.3%

SA By 8-14 points

13.7%

CHA By 1-7 points

26.2%

CHA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
112
SAN ANTONIO
113
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
110
SAN ANTONIO
115
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hornets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hornets (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CHA @ SA 102 - 115
Jan 31, 2026 SA @ CHA 106 - 111
Mar 14, 2025 CHA @ SA 145 - 134
Feb 7, 2025 SA @ CHA 116 - 117
Jan 19, 2024 SA @ CHA 120 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.6% more
Charlotte: 16.2 vs San Antonio: 12.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.0%
Charlotte: 42.2% vs San Antonio: 30.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +11.2%
Charlotte: 84.9% vs San Antonio: 73.7%
Blocks (L5) +31.9% more
San Antonio: 7.2 vs Charlotte: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 112.0 106
CHA Score 113.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 30.2 37.0 / 38.0
Assists 28.0 / 26.8 30.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.9 / 7.2 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 48.1 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 84.9 / 73.7 91.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 46.5 / 44.7 51.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.8 / 5.4 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 12.8 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
SA
CHA
SA
ML
61% 60-39
60% 111-73
48% 40-44
58% 61-44
ATS
60% 59-40
58% 107-76-1
48% 40-44
58% 61-44
TTL
58% 57-42
74% 134-47-3
100% 84-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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