FRESNO STATE
BULLDOGSFRES
9-11 | Road
79
AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-17 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
FALCONS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Air Force)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AF)
FRES By 1-7 points
21.6%
FRES By 8-14 points
10.7%
AF By 1-7 points
27.2%
AF By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Fresno State
86
FRESNO STATE
Air Force
89
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
Fresno State
68
FRESNO STATE
Air Force
75
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
AF @ FRES
63 - 93
Jan 31, 2026
FRES @ AF
79 - 62
Feb 22, 2025
FRES @ AF
69 - 72
Jan 17, 2025
AF @ FRES
65 - 74
Feb 10, 2024
FRES @ AF
68 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Air Force: 40.5%
vs
Fresno State: 37.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Air Force: 30.0%
vs
Fresno State: 27.6%
Steals (L5)
+39.2% more
Fresno State: 5.9
vs
Air Force: 3.6
Rebounding (L5)
+30.9% more
Fresno State: 35.3
vs
Air Force: 24.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FRES Score
86.0
79
AF Score
89.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 27.6
35.0 / 41.0
Assists
10.6 / 11.0
13.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.5
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.5 / 37.2
39.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 80.7
70.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
24.4 / 35.3
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
3.6 / 5.9
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 13.9
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES
Advantage
21-10-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -4.3
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
FRES
AF
FRES
ML
81%
26-6
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
74%
23-8
ATS
69%
22-10
75%
24-8
62%
20-12
74%
23-8
TTL
69%
22-10
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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