OLD DOMINION
MONARCHSODU
7-15 | Road
64
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
12-11 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
MONARCHS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
MONARCHS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
ODU By 1-7 points
10.7%
ODU By 8-14 points
3.3%
TXST By 1-7 points
23.0%
TXST By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Old Dominion
79
OLD DOMINION
Texas State
89
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Old Dominion
68
OLD DOMINION
Texas State
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
ODU @ TXST
64 - 81
Mar 6, 2025
ODU @ TXST
64 - 61
Feb 5, 2025
TXST @ ODU
64 - 75
Mar 5, 2024
ODU @ TXST
83 - 92
Mar 2, 2023
TXST @ ODU
65 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+9.1% more
Texas State: 11.0
vs
Old Dominion: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Texas State: 73.4%
vs
Old Dominion: 70.6%
Assists (L5)
+24.5% more
Old Dominion: 14.0
vs
Texas State: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Old Dominion: 45.0%
vs
Texas State: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ODU Score
79.0
64
TXST Score
89.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 33.8
44.0 / 22.0
Assists
10.6 / 14.0
17.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 45.0
46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 70.6
80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 34.6
41.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.7
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.1
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +0.7
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +0.7
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +3.0
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
ODU
TXST
ODU
ML
42%
13-18
52%
17-16
83%
25-5
67%
22-11
ATS
48%
15-16
70%
23-10
84%
26-5
67%
22-11
TTL
65%
20-11
70%
23-10
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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