VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-16 | Road
81
MERCER
BEARSMER
14-8 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
KEYDETS
100%
BEARS
0%
KEYDETS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Mercer)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MER -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)
VMI By 1-7 points
9.3%
VMI By 8-14 points
2.7%
MER By 1-7 points
21.6%
MER By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
VMI
69
VMI
Mercer
80
MERCER
Simulated Score
VMI
68
VMI
Mercer
75
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
VMI @ MER
81 - 95
Jan 15, 2026
MER @ VMI
77 - 67
Feb 15, 2025
VMI @ MER
80 - 71
Jan 4, 2025
MER @ VMI
70 - 67
Feb 3, 2024
VMI @ MER
69 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+212.4% more
Mercer: 3.8
vs
VMI: 1.2
Assists (L5)
+65.9% more
Mercer: 14.8
vs
VMI: 8.9
Rebounding (L5)
+40.5% more
Mercer: 40.2
vs
VMI: 28.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Mercer: 47.8%
vs
VMI: 39.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VMI Score
69.0
81
MER Score
80.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 33.4
29.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.8 / 8.9
21.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.8 / 1.2
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 39.2
50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 74.3
76.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
40.2 / 28.6
46.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.1
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 9.9
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
VMI
MER
VMI
ML
55%
17-14
53%
17-15
71%
22-9
84%
27-5
ATS
58%
18-13
50%
16-16
71%
22-9
84%
27-5
TTL
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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