ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
7-13 | Road
78
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
DELTA DEVILSMVSU
1-20 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
0%
DELTA DEVILS
100%
GOLDEN LIONS
--
DELTA DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UAPB -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)
UAPB By 1-7 points
0.8%
UAPB By 8-14 points
4.0%
MVSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
MVSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
121
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Mississippi Valley State
90
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Simulated Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
72
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Mississippi Valley State
65
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Lions (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Golden Lions (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
MVSU @ UAPB
70 - 69
Jan 31, 2026
UAPB @ MVSU
78 - 70
Mar 1, 2025
UAPB @ MVSU
83 - 58
Feb 1, 2025
MVSU @ UAPB
79 - 76
Mar 2, 2024
MVSU @ UAPB
69 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.1% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.9
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 1.5
Assists (L5)
+18.1% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 13.8
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 11.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 72.7%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 63.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 46.1%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 39.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score
121.0
78
MVSU Score
90.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.6 / 35.8
20.0 / 40.0
Assists
11.3 / 13.8
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.5 / 2.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.0 / 46.1
48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
63.6 / 72.7
79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
29.3 / 30.2
31.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.7 / 7.7
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 13.6
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
MVSU
3-30-0
(9.1%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
MVSU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MVSU
UAPB
MVSU
UAPB
ML
91%
30-3
74%
23-8
75%
18-6
73%
19-7
ATS
82%
27-6
73%
22-8-1
75%
18-6
73%
19-7
TTL
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
100%
24-0
100%
26-0