GEORGE MASON
PATRIOTSGMU
19-2 | Road
77
ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
13-8 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
BONNIES
0%
PATRIOTS
--
BONNIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SBU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)
GMU By 1-7 points
0.5%
GMU By 8-14 points
0.1%
SBU By 1-7 points
3.3%
SBU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
George Mason
63
GEORGE MASON
St. Bonaventure
88
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
George Mason
68
GEORGE MASON
St. Bonaventure
71
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bonnies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bonnies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bonnies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Bonnies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
SBU @ GMU
63 - 57
Feb 28, 2026
SBU @ GMU
58 - 71
Jan 31, 2026
GMU @ SBU
77 - 73
Jan 21, 2025
GMU @ SBU
75 - 62
Jan 20, 2024
SBU @ GMU
60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+106.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 5.0
vs
George Mason: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+54.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 17.7
vs
George Mason: 11.5
Steals (L5)
+36.2% more
St. Bonaventure: 6.9
vs
George Mason: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
St. Bonaventure: 37.8%
vs
George Mason: 29.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GMU Score
63.0
77
SBU Score
88.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 29.5
45.0 / 24.0
Assists
17.7 / 11.5
17.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 46.8
55.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 69.5
56.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 34.2
22.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.9 / 5.1
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.4
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
SBU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
SBU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
GMU
SBU
GMU
ML
59%
20-14
55%
18-15
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
ATS
50%
17-17
55%
18-15
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
TTL
38%
13-21
58%
19-14
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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