OHIO
BOBCATSOHIO
11-11 | Road
95
BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
14-7 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
BULLS
100%
BOBCATS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Ohio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OHIO -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)
OHIO By 1-7 points
26.8%
OHIO By 8-14 points
24.3%
BUF By 1-7 points
16.9%
BUF By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Ohio
89
OHIO
Buffalo
83
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Ohio
70
OHIO
Buffalo
75
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
OHIO @ BUF
95 - 83
Jan 10, 2026
BUF @ OHIO
80 - 91
Jan 7, 2025
OHIO @ BUF
88 - 79
Mar 5, 2024
OHIO @ BUF
78 - 66
Jan 30, 2024
BUF @ OHIO
70 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.2% more
Ohio: 4.7
vs
Buffalo: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+23.3% more
Ohio: 8.6
vs
Buffalo: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Ohio: 73.4%
vs
Buffalo: 69.7%
Assists (L5)
+82.0% more
Buffalo: 16.3
vs
Ohio: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score
89.0
95
BUF Score
83.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.5 / 28.5
43.0 / 26.0
Assists
16.3 / 9.0
15.0 / 19.0
Blocks
2.3 / 4.7
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 39.6
56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
69.7 / 73.4
70.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
31.5 / 30.8
30.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.6 / 8.6
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 11.2
13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
BUF
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.5
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
OHIO
BUF
OHIO
ML
45%
14-17
65%
20-11
45%
14-17
63%
19-11
ATS
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
45%
14-17
63%
19-11
TTL
48%
15-16
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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