IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
12-9 | Road
79
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
8-14 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
VANDALS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Northern Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAU)
IDHO By 1-7 points
6.8%
IDHO By 8-14 points
1.7%
NAU By 1-7 points
18.6%
NAU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho
56
IDAHO
Northern Arizona
69
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Idaho
69
IDAHO
Northern Arizona
78
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
NAU @ IDHO
58 - 78
Jan 31, 2026
IDHO @ NAU
79 - 62
Feb 20, 2025
IDHO @ NAU
83 - 78
Jan 25, 2025
NAU @ IDHO
80 - 72
Feb 24, 2024
IDHO @ NAU
86 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+56.5% more
Northern Arizona: 6.8
vs
Idaho: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+49.2% more
Northern Arizona: 15.5
vs
Idaho: 10.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.0%
Northern Arizona: 48.1%
vs
Idaho: 33.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Northern Arizona: 50.9%
vs
Idaho: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score
56.0
79
NAU Score
69.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
48.1 / 33.1
29.0 / 40.0
Assists
15.5 / 10.4
8.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.3 / 2.2
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 42.2
43.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 77.4
61.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
24.4 / 35.5
30.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.8 / 4.3
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 10.0
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
IDHO
NAU
IDHO
ML
62%
20-12
56%
20-16
81%
26-6
64%
21-12
ATS
62%
20-12
58%
21-15
81%
26-6
64%
21-12
TTL
66%
21-11
69%
25-11
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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