Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Panthers EVAN @ UNI

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

5-16  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 4:00 PM ET
McLeod Center
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN IOWA

PANTHERSUNI

13-9  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
PURPLE ACES --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 PanthersUNI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

0.5%

Panthers Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNI -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)

EVAN By 1-7 points

0.4%

EVAN By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNI By 1-7 points

2.7%

UNI By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
68
EVANSVILLE
94
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
68
EVANSVILLE
72
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o128.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u128.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 EVAN @ UNI 59 - 68
Jan 31, 2026 EVAN @ UNI 55 - 71
Jan 4, 2026 UNI @ EVAN 62 - 48
Jan 14, 2025 EVAN @ UNI 56 - 73
Jan 23, 2024 EVAN @ UNI 63 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.1% more
Evansville: 15.0 vs Northern Iowa: 9.4
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Evansville: 14.6 vs Northern Iowa: 11.3
Blocks (L5) +18.6% more
Evansville: 2.7 vs Northern Iowa: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.3%
Evansville: 72.7% vs Northern Iowa: 62.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 68.0 55
UNI Score 94.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 36.5 36.0 / 27.0
Assists 9.4 / 15.0 22.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.7 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 46.0 55.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 62.5 / 72.7 75.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 31.3 32.0 / 24.0
Steals 5.3 / 5.2 0.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 14.6 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
UNI Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
UNI Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
EVAN
UNI
EVAN
ML
51% 18-17
56% 18-14
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
ATS
49% 17-18
66% 21-11
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
TTL
69% 24-11
62% 20-12
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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