HAWAI'I
RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW
15-5 | Road
89
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-14 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
BEACH
0%
RAINBOW WARRIORS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Long Beach State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LBSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)
HAW By 1-7 points
6.8%
HAW By 8-14 points
1.7%
LBSU By 1-7 points
18.6%
LBSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Hawai'i
80
HAWAI'I
Long Beach State
93
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Hawai'i
65
HAWAI'I
Long Beach State
73
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beach
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beach (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
LBSU @ HAW
84 - 75
Jan 31, 2026
HAW @ LBSU
89 - 82
Feb 13, 2025
LBSU @ HAW
60 - 62
Dec 7, 2024
HAW @ LBSU
68 - 76
Feb 24, 2024
LBSU @ HAW
65 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Long Beach State: 45.1%
vs
Hawai'i: 42.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+18.3% more
Hawai'i: 40.0
vs
Long Beach State: 32.6
Blocks (L5)
+13.0% more
Hawai'i: 3.6
vs
Long Beach State: 3.1
Turnovers (L5)
+9.3% more
Hawai'i: 14.6
vs
Long Beach State: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HAW Score
80.0
89
LBSU Score
93.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 36.0
30.0 / 57.0
Assists
14.1 / 14.5
9.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.6
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 42.3
44.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 79.9
80.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 40.0
36.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.7
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 14.6
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 9.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 9.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -0.1
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
HAW
LBSU
HAW
ML
55%
17-14
61%
20-13
65%
20-11
68%
21-10
ATS
68%
21-10
67%
22-11
65%
20-11
68%
21-10
TTL
61%
19-12
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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