UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
15-7 | Road
64
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
12-10 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
100%
MATADORS
0%
TRITONS
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUN -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
UCSD By 1-7 points
0.0%
UCSD By 8-14 points
0.0%
CSUN By 1-7 points
0.0%
CSUN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
35
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Northridge
86
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
68
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Northridge
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Matadors (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
UCSD @ CSUN
70 - 80
Jan 31, 2026
UCSD @ CSUN
64 - 81
Jan 15, 2026
CSUN @ UCSD
84 - 79
Feb 27, 2025
UCSD @ CSUN
77 - 71
Jan 25, 2025
CSUN @ UCSD
54 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+62.2% more
Cal State Northridge: 19.6
vs
UC San Diego: 12.1
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Cal State Northridge: 42.8
vs
UC San Diego: 38.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Cal State Northridge: 46.3%
vs
UC San Diego: 40.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
UC San Diego: 66.5%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 56.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
35.0
64
CSUN Score
86.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 30.4
33.0 / 29.0
Assists
19.6 / 12.1
21.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.7
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 40.1
45.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
56.0 / 66.5
78.0 / 44.0
Rebounding
42.8 / 38.7
48.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.7
3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.5
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUN
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
UCSD
CSUN
UCSD
ML
58%
19-14
56%
19-15
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
ATS
58%
19-14
50%
17-17
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
TTL
58%
19-14
62%
21-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
